JPMorgan Global All-Industry PMI reflects significant gains in both manufacturing and services
January 6, 2004 - The latest Global Report on Manufacturing and Services signalled further significant expansion of the global private sector economy at a rate only marginally slower than last month's survey peak. The Global All-Industry Output Index posted 60.6, down from 61.6 in November, to record a reading consistent with annualized global GDP growth of around 5%. Furthermore, the rate of expansion signalled by the Index throughout the final quarter of 2003 has remained sharper than that recorded during the previous forty months.
"PMI survey data from around the globe remained extremely positive in December, with the latest All-Industry Index figure still consistent with annualized global GDP growth of around 5%," said David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan. "The global economic expansion is increasingly broad-based by region and sector. The recent surge in manufacturing activity is particularly encouraging. Global labor markets are strengthening, led by a significant improvement in the US. Inflation pressures are moving up but remain modest overall."
For the first time since August 2002, the implied rate of expansion of global manufacturing output outpaced that of service sector activity. Growth of manufacturing output has gathered considerable pace during the second half of 2003, and reached a new survey record rate in December. Meanwhile, the global services economy expanded for the ninth month running, with the latest data signalling further robust growth.
Significant growth of incoming new business was reported in December, with substantial gains recorded in both manufacturing and services. The Global All-Industry New Business Index posted 61.6, down from last month's series peak of 62.9. New orders expanded at a survey record rate in the manufacturing sector and (for the first time in almost one-and-a-half years) at a sharper pace than in the services economy.
The Global All-Industry Employment Index posted 52.9 in December, to signal the sharpest increase of worldwide private sector employment since November 2000. The Index has signalled expansion throughout the final quarter of 2003, with the latest growth principally reflecting the robust performance of the service sector labor market. Nevertheless, in a major development, the size of the global manufacturing workforce increased in December for the first time in three years.
At 56.5 in December, the Global All-Industry Input Prices Index signalled the sharpest inflation of input costs for nine months. The steeper rate of increase was reported by the manufacturing economy.
The Global Report on Manufacturing and Services is based on the results of surveys carried out in the USA by ISM, in Japan, the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Russia, Ireland, Greece, Austria, the Netherlands, Poland and Czech Republic by NTC Research and in a number of other countries: Denmark, Israel, Hungary, South Africa, Switzerland, Australia and Singapore. These countries together account for an estimated 76% of global gross domestic product.
The Global Report on Manufacturing and Services provides the first indication each month of global business conditions, based on data collected from around 10,000 purchasing executives. It is compiled by NTC Research. The data enable decision makers in the financial world to make better judgments much earlier than would otherwise be the case.
The wide coverage of the indexes, together with their speed of production, accuracy and direct comparability, make them unmatched as economic indicators. They provide truly "must have" information for financial institutions of all kinds and for major corporations world-wide. Questions are asked about real events and are not opinion based. Data are presented in the form of diffusion indices, where an index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in the variable since the previous month and below 50.0 a decrease.
For more information, including additional analysis, graphs, and data, please visit www.ntc-research.com.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is a leading global financial services firm with assets of $793 billion and operations in more than 50 countries. The firm is a leader in investment banking, financial services for consumers and businesses, financial transaction processing, investment management, private banking and private equity. A component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, JPMorgan Chase is headquartered in New York and serves more than 30 million consumer customers nationwide, and many of the world's most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients. Information about JPMorgan Chase is available on the internet at www.jpmorganchase.com.
NTC Research is one of the world's largest specialist providers of business research information, operating business surveys on behalf of blue-chip clients. Current research includes continuous surveys providing original data on economic conditions in the UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Ireland, Greece, Russia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hong Kong. NTC surveys are widely used by governments, businesses and financial markets.
Founded in 1915, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities, and education. ISM's membership base includes more than 45,000 supply management professionals with a network of domestic and international affiliated associations. ISM is a not-for-profit institute that provides opportunities for the promotion of the profession and the expansion of professional skills and knowledge.
The International Federation of Purchasing and Materials Management (IFPMM) is the union of 42 national purchasing associations worldwide. Within this circle, about 200,000 purchasing professionals can be reached. IFPMM is a non-political, independent and non-profit oriented international organization, registered in Aarau, Switzerland. IFPMM facilitates the development and distribution of knowledge to elevate and advance the procurement profession, thus favourably impacting the standard of living of citizens worldwide through improved business practices.